Takeover door is opened, page-16

I'm mainly looking at this short term 6 months or less, pretty on the fence still. So many things here to consider. Maybe the biggest is all the lawsuits now and in the pipelines and others in the future? How do you price that uncertainly on top of the pandemic and zero interest rates - more or less - going forward (I don't think that's improving anytime soon, with all the stimulus who knows though). It's a bad environment for banks above all, and little better for financials. With the pandemic, and all the bargains around the world, is this the best thing out there for the would-be buyer ignoring the other concerns.

You can't buy the whole thing without buying the liabilities along with it. I can see Macquarie for example (and maybe others), as being interested in AMP Capital, as it grows their local market share and is naturally synergistic for them. Looks like the easiest to fix too with the most value. I sort-of doubt they'd want the rest much, they declared a while back they were going into private high net wealth only. The remaining banks are also pretty interested in getting rid of their wealth businesses so it's a bit of a buyers market for those. Macquarie similarly should have little interest in retail banking - Domestic mortgages and basic deposits are not really their thing either. They (or other buyers) can't be keen too keen on any liabilities or other issues attached to those businesses either. I guess they could buy the lot take AMP capital and flog the others but it's not a bag I'd want to risk holding personally.

I'm thinking an AMP Capital divestment, spin-off, or similar might make a lot of sense if they can't attract a buyer for the lot. To me at least I would feel like I was buying someone else's problems if I bought it as is, so they didn't have to deal with it. But if the numbers still make sense, well... They've certainly patched it up for a quick sale, on paper at least, and the new CEO seems to be begging to be bought out. What do others think, will buyers just find better deals elsewhere or could this be it for some of them? I'm not sure short term, in the long term, I see them getting picked up one way or another as the likely base case.