Good points about the competition regulators. (After UMC I don't think BHP is interesed in buying anything else). BHP would be better off saving it's cash and instead lobby the government to keep the Chinese at bay.
Although, RIO may still have a look at IOH (with whom there is a mine-gate deal). Quite frankly, the BHP-RIO JV is what will take all their focus in the next few months.
A likely scenario then is that in due course BHP and RIO will offer BRM and IOH rail access to make them independently viable (hence keeping the Chinese at bay).
I think FMG will soon do a (AGO-WRK type deal) with BCI given the trial mining results has been promising. It sounds logical to ditch the JV and merger out-right.
If AGO ever becomes a takeover target. Unlike UMC (which is a tiny minnow completely stranded between RIO & BHP), AGO - an expanding "producer" with existing Port access, FMG rail and road train solutions with a significant resource base and huge tenaments would command a huge premium (assuming the regulators approve such a scenario - I am very doubtful).
AGO Price at posting:
$1.89 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
