I actually think a takeover of BGL by VAU could present quite a compelling case for VAU shareholders.
The company's existing cash hoard would allow it to make a part share/part cash offer without blowing out the existing number of VAU shares on issue too much. VAU's enhanced cashflows - post hedging commitments - from 2026 (assuming the gold price stays up) would allow it to sort out a few cash issues BGL has coming up in 2026.
By the end of 2026, the (enlarged) operation could be potentially debt and hedge free and producing quite a lot of gold.
It wouldn't be a top-tier miner but it'd have a higher weighting in the gold indices (and all other indices for that matter) and would sit much higher up on the table of Australia's largest listed corporations.
The only real issue I'd have would be how much VAU would have to pay for BGL. With Blackrock still holding a major stake (and a blocking stake at that), they could ensure that potential buyers don't get to take-over BGL for a pittance. If there truly are other serious potential buyers at the moment for BGL, you'd hope egos don't triumph over commonsense and result in a crazy bidding war for the company (VAU holders also holding BGL scrip may hope otherwise).
VAU Price at posting:
44.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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