You’re way off on how takeover bids work in oil and gas, mate. Maybe stick to trading.
Acquirers don’t just look at the current share price and slap on a random premium. That might fly in a textbook example, but in reality - especially in oil and gas - valuation is far more complex.
Bidders assess a range of factors, including:
- reserves and resources (2P/3P estimates, contingent resources, etc.)
- NPV and cash flow forecasts based on current and projected commodity prices
- Infrastructure access, permits, and project timelines
- Strategic fit with their existing portfolio (synergies, basin dominance, infrastructure overlap)
- JV agreements, royalties, and offtake deals
- Market sentiment and geopolitical risk
- Future exploration upside
Driving down a share price for a takeover isn’t a reliable strategy - especially in a lightly traded or speculative stock. In fact, if a suitor were manipulating price or volume, regulators would be all over it.
Real players do their due diligence and bid based on what the asset is worth, not just what it’s trading at.Throwing around numbers like “5c – 8c” or “10c – 15c max” without any fundamental backing is just noise.
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