takeover price, page-65

i think nailbiter has the right strategy. WPL shareholders (stupidly) don't seem to want OSH and (stupidly) think the offer is too much. the price has dropped to multi year lows. but no one can refute the production, balance sheet and yield of WPL. its a great LT investment.

there's just no way this deal will go through, with general shareholders, but particularly PNG gov - even if at profit price for them. the gov want a proven, long-term player in there and continued relationships, not some other foreign company. oil search is the defacto png national oil company.

i think there is a limited window until OSH/png gov publicly laugh at this deal and reject it. after which time, WPL will go back up. personally, as an OSH holder, id really like to see the stock drop 15% and actually continue its downward trend for a bit after the deal fails. this fantasy oil glut will pass. you have to look at OSH with T3, Papuan LNG and future decades in mind. think of how that outstanding TSR will keep growing and embarrassing its peers such as the woefully performing, incompetent santos.

the big risk is that another bidder comes in on OSH.

frankly, i don't want to see OSH taken out right now for $10! the capital gains and div flow for the next 20 years will be far far superior. i don't think people understand just how good those 2 LNG projects are. i'd be happy if they developed T3 and Papua LNG and then put the thing in pension fund mode.