DCN 0.00% 28.5¢ dacian gold limited

Perhaps.. but 2 big factors have changed in past 6 months.....

  1. 309 Posts.
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    Perhaps.. but 2 big factors have changed in past 6 months..

    Despite many major market observers and gradual fed tighetening, gold has remained stubbornly above US$1200/oz or A$1,550 which is near the market peak for Aussie miners (i.e. gold at US2000/oz at the then exchange rate of $1.1 = approx A$1800/oz). Compound this with an estimated 30% drop in costs, and gold miners are making more cash than ever (well, ever as in the past 2 decades).. which means they are all nearly unlevered or fast approaching it.. which leads to point 2..

    Debt is cheap and I know a number of gold funds, let alone mining financiers who would just love to invest some of their money at the moment (can't charge fees on committed or uncalled capital) but there is no gold miner besides DCN that can or needs access project finance or even a revolver. So.. when companies are unlevered, financiers are keen to fund and a relatively cheap new expansion strategy is on the table which can be turned into gold dore before the boom is over (i.e. buy rather than explore) you can bet your bottom dollar DCN is in pretty much every pitch deck to current gold producers by corporate advisers from the bulge bracket in Sydney to the brunch bracket in West Perth. Add to this the synergies of a nearby miner buying it as they can cut further costs out and make even more $$..

    Plus, that $137m in cash just raised and yet to be spent means the equity value is commensurately less (about $260m as at today).. I'm thinking a possible scrip deal providing rollover relief for us CGT exposed shareholders (i.e. bought in past year and took up the shareholder placement), then use DCN and parent company cash balance to get an even better deal on the debt and move this along in a hurry to extract synergies for us all..
    Last edited by qdos: 21/03/17
 
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