"Based on Amanda's actions on SEG I have no doubt she would shut down a NdPr line"
Lol, based on SEG & LaCe, NdPr is the life blood, shutting down any portion would be slashing an artery.
"nothing says this is NdPr that is 47%"
Except simple logic, if LaCe represent 30% of revenues, and we can see Rhodia drawing 5% of that, how can China take 47% by value without drawing a large portion of the 70% of revenues represented by NdPr? Particularly when Japan also buys a considerable portion of the catalyst material.
Again you simply display little comprehension of the market, China claims to hold 88% of the NdPr mkt by volume (data this week) and Japan circa 10%.
KN puts Sino NdPr production under the quota allocation at 21ktpa (reality was probably +1okt "illegals" at peak 2014 demand).
Just at "nameplate" LAMP will produce +5.5kt (with perhaps 15% upside), effectively 25% of Dragon's "legal" production.
Now I'm not sure about your math but I don't think trying to stuff 20% of global production into just 10% of global market is going to work out so well.
Now granted your probably still enthralled with Moly's "mine to magnet (powders)" fantasy but the simple fact is nobody is going to displace the Dragon's NdFeB dominance by volume anytime soon, and anyone wanting to build a space in the RE industry had better come to terms with it rather quickly, and work out how to compete profitably (sure has hell won't be tolling).
With all the current focus on prices not sure the investments mkts at all understand Lynas scale/leverage within the RE industry, nor the extraordinary ROW demand growth dramatically rebalancing at least volumes if not values vs Dragon.
LYC Price at posting:
5.4¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)