Takeover target?, page-16

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goldbear77

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10/05/17

17:39

Post #: 24605193
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Originally posted by loki01 ↑

"imo the revaluation has nothing to do with takeover talk - and everything to do with preparing for a second major elliott wave in gold stocks."

Gold needs a trigger for a major upwards move. None seems to be on the horizon for the reminder of this year. I am expecting a bounce in the USD POG in the second half of 2017 for the usual reason - ie increased Indians buying for their major festival/s. I still think gold will head under USD1200 first.

My interpretation is that the good local producers such as SBM, EVN, NST, EVN are going up or holding well in the face of falling USD POG because of a variety of reasons, such as expectations of a declining AUD and future action by GDXJ to buy some of them in the next rebalance. SBM may also now have a bit of a premium on it like NST and RRL, given they have a growing cashpile and no debt concurrent with the best operating margin (for the next few years). In the absence of a major upmove in the gold price what is the point of buying them at their current prices given the usual risk factors with holding goldies? Do they have 30-50% upside? I do not think so.

I am holding off getting back into SBM until I see a discount to value. That may mean I never get back in again, but so be it.

Good luck all.

loki

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think youll end up regarding sep/oct 17 as being fairly similar to aug/sep 2015 - aud goldies go first, non pure aud exposures go second but have bigger re-rate

SBM Price at posting: $2.86 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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Takeover target?, page-16

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