This is what I think a few people think: one of two things will...

This is what I think a few people think: one of two things will happen (or both); US Fed will micro-manage interest rates to prevent US sliding into recession. After being funded at LIBOR plus 25 points (expensive) for up to 6 months (may be less), and after commercial paper spreads come back in towards normal, share price will move higher as the turmoil recedes. If the extra funding cost of its temporary facility is say 25 points (might be less than this) for the full 6 months (might be less than this) and this is applied to the bulk of their book being $10 billion, costs to Rams is say A$12.5 million. This will eat into their annual profit which is estimated at $50 million this year. So perhaps 2007-08 profit is say $40 million given growth in lending. This might mean share price comes back to 80% of where it was at float being $2 at best and say $1.80 at worst? At any time, a bank like NAB or Westpac might accumulate a stake but not sure they would make takeover bid so soon as would be bad pr perhaps. (just a thought); But given the loan book is high quality and loans are insured, an acquisiton by one of the bigger banks (even Adelaide Bank) would make sense. Love to know if my comments half make sense?