Great analysis & interesting snapshot.
However, I personally don't think NEA would/should attempt to take over AMX.
1. AMX is very financially healthy so an offer price of $1.47 could be easily rejected by shareholders.There is almost no chance for NEA to acquire AMX at a cheap price. However, a takeover bid may push share price higher and make AMX more attractive.
2. A takeover bid from NEA will give me impression that NEA have no confidence in their products and they worry about losing market share to AMX. If NEA go down that path, they'd better make sure they will succeed. Otherwise, the action might put them in a bad situation.
3. The main/only reason why NEA take over AMX is that they want to keep monopoly in the industry. However, such takeover could be easily rejected by ACCC, as
@fatjoe mentioned.
A very small chance to acquire AMX for keeping monopoly vs a big chance to be rejected and give some benefits to AMX. IMPO, NEA shouldn't go down that path.
(20min delay)