Takeover Target, page-54

Initial sample from June derisks that, alongside the simple fact that it was mined for decades.

To me, SHP risks are few, but large:

• Funding required is so dilutory that it's laughable. But HFR got $350m USD debt funding, and the German government is clearly keen to see jobs and reduce sovereign risk. Therefore our risk isn't insurmountable if we too can take a debt route
• Management... Bit of a shit show post Gilchrist departure, and massive amount of capital needed to get DFS completed by Mr Farmer when he was acting. Management now has streamlined approach and reduced costs, and has developed potash mine expansions and has EuroChem history and connection. Got it had it to Mr Farmer in the appointments. A good group on paper. Need to share plans and deliver
• Potash market - presumably can't see this doing anything but supporting the cause. Nowhere I've read has a bear case on potash, and whilst the Canadians amp up production it's still $100/tn plus the carbon to get it to Europe

42c target... I heard that before, partly why I held at 22c having bought in at 11c at that point. 0.2NPV in June is way too high in my opinion, but 0.02 is where we are now....

Does that mean the market gives us a 2% chance? Probably a fair estimate on your average explorer, but I think pretty unfair on a central European massive resource with some existing infrastructure around and zero royalties, I think 10c is a step towards fair