takeover target

I have been mulling over the action in the last week or two. The OBV indicator is very bulish. That suggests a buyer is building a posiiton. Could this mean a takeover?

The key is the cornerstone shareholder. It obviously would want a return on their investment, and for a guess I thought 20%. Its cost is as follows.

45m * 0.25 = AUD 11.25m
+ 50m * 0.04 = AUD 2.00m

Avge price 0.14 + 20% = A$ 0.167 which is exactly book value so I think it would have to be higher to do a deal.