I've been thinking about this for a while and when I first invested in Axiom (many many years ago now) , I had done my research , spoke to people in the know and formulated a share price that I believed we would get to if all things turned out as was expected. Since then I have changed my estimate several times as my original estimate was very bullish.
The only recent company that I think an indirect comparison can be made with is SIR ( stay with me here, I know theyre not exactly the same). On announcing they had discovered Nova, they're MC was well over $2bill, this mind you is several years and several hundred million dollars before any production can commence. We have a significantly larger resource, much smaller CAPEX, much smaller COP and we can begin shipping immediately (COA decision pending of course). SIR has huge CAPEX, huge COP, and won't begin production for some time.
What I would like to see if this were to ever happen is a sale price that would give us a MC of at least $1.5- 2 bill and I think this is a bargain when you consider what we actually have. Personally I hope it is north of this figure, but with the current climate, can't be too optimistic I guess.
I guess from my perspective I haven't waited over 5 years to see a takeover of anything less than $3. This is my personal opinion and is not based on anything other than what I would like to see shareholders make as a minimum.
Having said all this I know that Ryan would get the best possible price for shareholders if this scenario were to ever be played out. Remembering every extra cent he extracts also makes him wealthier.
I'm calling $5 a share which would give us a MC of about $1.5bill give or take
What do others think?? And don't start any personal attacks ( I don't want to get suspended)
AVQ Price at posting:
26.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
