Demand is real - this is a US 2050 scenario (limited but relevant sample) by MIT Energy Institute, covered in series of webinars from July 2022 - the economic study output supports TVN's business strategy to focus on vanadium and chasing IRA $, especially if it can supply into this with a lower cost profile - whether that's vanadium pentoxide or VRFBs time shall tell. Some of the stats they share e.g. based on current knowledge, a 25% CAGR for vanadium production required if they are to partially meet of their US 2050 (70 of 100TWh) demand is mind blowing. Some might question this academia-led modelling being way off the mark, but even a fraction of their picture depicting future demand bodes well for TVN
VRFBs themselves seem to be getting traction
https://www.vanitec.org/vanadium/map The number of operational VRFBs was not as populated few years ago, let alone all the other instances that have been announced/are in construction
The Vanitec meeting in China from few weeks back also shows level of interest is VRFBs but primary production is still low and largely vanadium is still being extracted for mainly the steel industry. From the questions raised in the different presos, you get general consensus that interest in VRFB is high.
https://www.youtube.com/@VanitecOrg/videos Vincent from AVL made an interesting comment on $ cost they use in their price estimation proposals in Australia - made me wonder what cost saving TVN could offer towards more affordable VRFB/vanadium pentoxide, especially if leasing of V2O5 becomes a thing.
My issue is with MASDP and the politics that surrounds it - will this affect TVN materially with more delays? TVN already experienced delays of few years from the joy ride of TPF-Peake-MASDP.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-04-20/senate-inquiry-report-released-on-beetaloo-basin-fracking-nt/102242472 (a b c news on fracking and MASDP). How MASDP is impacted (they need to provide large quantities of gas and electricity to turn MASDP into a real industry precinct, but how will they achieve this with these kinds of issues?) and more importantly how this impacts TVN timelines is more of a concern.
Interesting time to raise this post Bruno given GW was presenting to the hedge fund audience this week as per last week's investor briefing recording. "wall of money waiting for us"
DYOR
(20min delay)