takeover, page-44

I'm not _sure_ I'm at odds with JID.

Here is how I would reconcile our views (but JID think differently).
* I haven't assigned $1 to exploration upside (aside from Svartliden making its 5 years). JID may have assigned (reasonably) value to that
* At best I've considered 10% upside to gold, JID may be thinking about a higher number.
* My assumptions about the range for cash costs, capex (I ended up using the middle of the gold cost curve as my baseline rather than the Green Leader numbers) and mine life had pretty wide ranges. I put a slightly higher chance of a higher cash cost than currently reports (cash costs have risen every year for the last 3-4 years). At constant cash costs and lower assumed Capex DRA is obviously worth more.
* I assumed the full option value for Koka, cash, receivables and inventory but zero for the other assets. Also assumed 100% for liabilities. You could make the case that there is residual value in the other assets.

These conservative assumptions leave me comfortable that DRA is worth more than 9c but on balance not worth more than 12c (but possibly worth more).

As you are more aggressive, or more __knowledgeable__ about these assumptions then you may end up with a higher value.

DRA is very sensitive to inputs. For example:

if over LOM cash costs come in 10% below 2009, total expansion capex is only 15M, mine life is 5 years and gold is at 1329AUD then DRA is worth 20c.

If over LOM cash costs come in 10% above 2009, total expansion capex is 25M, mine life is 3 years for Svatliden and gold is at 1090AUD then DRA is worth 5c.