takeover, page-26

Haven't got time to post very often, but thanks to those who have been. Some useful general information here.

Some interesting discussion here of late.

Midlifecrisis - good to have a different perspective on board. Agree that some of us can sometimes get carried away, but a couple of your comments go against the grain for me. Firstly, 'the market is always right'. This is a very basic view of the world and to assume that markets are completely efficient and all stocks are fully and fairly prices is just simply not true. There are a number of different factors driving individual stocks - think simply about one of them - how each of our own personal situations are different and we would all react differently (i.e. buy, hold, sell) to any one set of circumstances. The market is not alway right - if it was, there would be no point in investing in something that is fully priced.

It then follows that we'll agree to disagree that MEY is fully priced at current prices. I won't go in to all the reasons I think it is undervalued, because they have been well and truly fleshed out over the last few months. However, I wouldn't mind exploring the prospect of a takeover a little further.

For me, it is simple.
- I completely dissagree with comments on here that Areva is buying and or selling on market. The sellers have been very broad based and noone of any real significance has sold in recent times. The selling is probably explained by a number of long standing shareholders who got very burnt by MEY's (or then WME's) fall during the GFC and couldn't even get out because the volume in the stock was just to low. Also throw in the Polo situation and selling. The recent news and price spike has provided some much needed liquidity to allow those holders to get out. And they are taking the opportunity. Clearly, there are a lot of them with between 50k and 500k shares. They will run out or wake up eventually.

- MEY will be taken over by Areva within 6 mths. The story is extremely compelling. In my view, Areva will not move until the scoping study is out. This is not because they don't believe in MEY (Areva would know this project, the technical data, the overall area and the value of Marenica to Trekkopje better than anyone) - but more to give them a sound basis to pay significantly above the current shareprice. Frankly, they'd be silly not to wait. Areva is not silly.

- You'd have to think the Board would seriously consider an offer around 45-50c. I base this simply on the fact of where the share price is and all the money, time and work that will need to go in to developing the project as a stand alone. There is clearly a risk in going it alone and the Board would find it difficult to justify the risk compared to such an immediate short term return. Having said that, further positive drilling results, another resource upgrade or even just synergies between the two projects may mean a friendly takeover might be even more.

- has anyone wondered why Areva haven't asked for a Board seat on MEY? I have thought about this a lot and I am convinced that it holds the key to their intentions. Clearly, Areva haven't purchased a stake in MEY to make a couple of million on a trade. They bought in at nearly 20c (which in itself is as much evidence as I need that MEY is undervalued at current prices - not sure anyone on this thread or anywhere in the world knows more about uranium or this deposit to say otherwise) and could have easily justified a Board seat. I suspect MEY would have jumped at the chance to strengthen their Board too. But in my view, they haven't because they may be considered to have a conflict if they were planning a takeover whilst putting a director on the Board at the same time. it makes sense that they would want more than a small stake in MEY and, IMO, they will make the play once the scoping study is done.

- Don't be surprised to see some competing interest for MEY from companies other than Areva as well. I know the Chinese were keen at one stage and with an increasing deposit and so much potential exploration upside, there is likely to be a few ppl running the ruler over them.

And before this gets jumped on as ramping, I'm clearly not trying to ramp the price. I couldn't care less what it does short term and I'm not suggesting that anyone should listen or rush to get in without doing their own research. But the story is very compelling for some serious action around mid year. Watch for the smart money to get set before then as well.