takeover?

Not that I'm necessarily wishing it, at least not yet, but I wouldn't be surprised if Prima soon becomes a serious candidates for a takeover that could start a bidding fight between large pharmas.

When ?

Well phase IIb safety data is out in June and efficacy data is out end of 2012 (as someone who contacted the company and posted on HC was recently told). As long as the data are good enough (though we can hope the data will be very good ... think misterS suggested that given the target disease it needn't necessarily be fantastic to be a success because the alternative is far more crude, less effective, chemo etc) ... then Prima could be 'primed' as the perfect takeover target.

Why ? (let's wish)

- by Jan 2013, good/very good safety and efficacy data for phase IIb
- phase III well under way by that time, no issues, high & rapid recruitment levels (should be so)
- NASDAQ well established with new inward investments having joined the stock
- actual Dubai sales & positive progress update about DUbai interest
- more Pharma drugs coming off patent
- more US investors and fans of DNDN jumping on board
- further manufacturing approvals
- AU/NZ commercialization approvals/sales come much earlier than expected
- major progress on oral Gardasil HPV vaccine

If all these boxes get ticked and no real reason to doubt they will, I wonder what the SP could be realistically (if no takeover has happened yet) by March 2013.

My guess is AU$0.80-$1.10

I know that's a lot higher than where we are now, but don't under estimate the power of positive phase IIb results even if by then we have only interim data. I believe the final data for phase IIb should be out end of 2013. Not sure where I've seen that so someone please correct me if I am wrong.

Prima would still be massively de-risked with solid interim data.