whitehorseI don't think b) as they probably can't pay more than...

whitehorse

I don't think b) as they probably can't pay more than the offer price.

I also doubt a) because no holding has been disclosed and it would be a pretty big corporation that would muscle in and I doubt that they would play games (shaft investors).

Most likely it is c): that is, investors who are willing to chance losing a few cents to potentially make a lot more. Euroz was valuing AUT higher when MRO had just come on the scene than the offer price values it now. That is after MRO's stunning success of drilling more effectively at a cheaper price and before the positive results of the trial drilling at closer spacing and in the AC. It is true that AUT has taken on a big chunk of debt but most of that is funding MRO operated acreage. The fall in the value of the A$ has further increased the value of the reserves in AUD terms. It looks like an opportunist strike and may be vulnerable.

If you're not worried by being left with the shares there's no reason to sell. A bid might appear. It would make sense to Marathon. There's plenty of time.4

The new BoD just has not communicated, particularly with regard to the self-operated activities. We do have some information now but they seem to have released the minimum. I wouldn't say that they have snubbed the ASX investors in AUT but they clearly lost the support of the main market on which the company is listed. A sinking price might not mean problems encountered in the company's business but it certainly means that there has been insufficient communication if there are no problems to worry about.

I've been whinging about the lack of reporting on the self-operated assets for months and this bid is the inevitable consequence of a combination of bad communication and valuable assets.