"- Management need to provide us with the cop to allow us to see when we can expect POS to start producing. DFS should be provided end of Q1 21. I will believe it when I see it as we have been told we will get the DFS more than a year ago but the company has not delivered."
I hear you, N, but I wouldn't expect anything along those lines this quarter. It would be pointless putting anything out that doesn't include the impact of what GS has to offer. They will want to be able to put a number around the GS maiden resource which can only come after the GS resource definition drilling is done. This can only start after the drill/dev drive has been completed (now slated for end-Q1). Once the GS maiden resource has been defined it can be integrated into an updated DFS, with revised COP. GS maiden resource drilling (and hopefully some ST too) to occur during Q2, with maiden resource to be reported in Q3 this CY. FID hopefully by end-Q4. That's what PH was clearly indicating in the recent quarterly, which is consistent with my thinking early last November (arrived at independently).
There is always the chance they might get aggressive if the market really heats up whereby they make an early start on the dev drive towards the GS ore body sometime after the maiden resource drilling is done (i.e. in Q3, concurrently with when the office work is being done to properly define the ore body, develop the GS mining plan, update the DFS, COP, etc...). We need to remember that the drill drive will stop ~200m from the (currently) known mineralisation. So there may be scope, subject to finances, to get a head start on bridging that gap while office work is being done in Q3/Q4. Probably wishful thinking, but you never know...
"- People have said that AF has other fish to fry. But this has not cleared the query I have. He held shares in POS for a zillion years. Now that the sp wants to breakout, he caps it by selling and does not wait for GS info which is round the corner. Surely, he could have waited a few more months and sold at 15c+, thereby making a packet of money."
The 64k question. If he strategically wants out, or to sell down to the bare minimum (maybe 10% blocking?) then he can only do so by selling into strength -- particularly given such an overwhelmingly large holding relative to normal trading volumes. The alternative would be to decimate the market by flooding it with sell orders. That hasn't happened and isn't likely to, imo. Note that his average exits to-date have been north of his 6.8c VWAP, which should surprise nobody.
Some have asked why the volumes have dropped right off recently. My take is that the buy-side has had its fill for the time being. Any whales (looking at you AF) who might still wish the offload can only do so into increased buy-side volume. In short: it's the buyers who are most likely to govern the volumes at this stage, while it's the sellers who are most likely to govern just how much it is capped or allowed to run. I also wouldn't discount the possibility that as the PON strengthens and as time goes by (drilling advances), AF's managers/brokers may adjust their approach and allow the market more room to move -- assuming he's still a seller. Nothing is static. Players adjust to changing circumstances.
To the larger question of why sell at all: That's the eternal question. Probably best answered with a question: Why did WMC offload their WA Ni assets to various players (incl. a v.young IGO) in the early 2000s, shortly before the last secular Ni bull market? Gotta love investment markets -- especially Ni plays (boy, oh boy...).
"- It does not seem that the gold processing will be going ahead except if Lancefield brings the cop down."
Lancefield should bring the COP down, but by how much. I think the real issue here is in removing the current legislative restriction.
"Hoping that PH will have some fresh news for us when he speaks at the conference. My guess is that the talk will be mostly about things we know already."
Agreed.
There is potential for some positive news flow in the ST (short term) coming from the diamond drilling that is current testing the ST (Southern Terrace) (we have AF AF and now ST ST... lol). It would have been nice to have been given some better colour around the details of this current drilling.
While the PON strengthens (think AUD terms) I think POS will gradually drift upwards, but I'm not expecting any awesome alpha unless/until we get new hits from the current ST core drilling &/or GS mineralisation definition drilling results start to flow and confirm (in mid/late Q2), or some other unforeseen event like getting "Eloned" (pretty please).
I'm a big fan of the old maxim "Happiness is expectations met". It really resonates with me. It strikes me that the first step is in developing realistic expectations. (Not aimed personally at you, Noor. Just thinking aloud. With all the negativity that is constantly trotted here out on a daily basis, I thought some punters might find it useful.)
I'm of the view that current management is doing a decent job with what they started with. The past belongs to different managers and Board members.
(20min delay)