I ran some numbers to confirm the figures on the experts report issued by HAV. This is what I came up with. Its roughly in line with the experts report. I have also taken into account the tax on the sale, allowing for the carry forward losses to be used to offset the gains on sale of Kalkaroo. Not sure if this will be allowed and would love the company to inform the market of the tax impact of the transaction. I may have missed it.
Scenario
Cash Value of the Deal per share
Addn'l Funds for Exploration per share
Total Cash value per share
Tax on sale of Asset net of carried forward losses
Net value to company after tax per share
1
1) Value of NPV per share with resource payment & Copper price over $10,000 Tonne
$1.14
$0.06
$1.20
$0.29
$0.90
2
2) Value of NPV per share with resource payment
$0.79
$0.06
$0.85
$0.19
$0.66
3
3) Value of NPV per share without resource payment
$0.66
$0.06
$0.72
$0.15
$0.57
I would also like the company to be more open as to whether there will be a return to shareholders. In the event of a distribution, in the form of a dividend and whether the dividend will be franked or unfranked or a portion thereof,
In some way, I feel that OZ are getting a fantastic asset at a very cheap price. The in situ value of the gold would probably exceed the amount being paid. The NPV on the project is well over $1.2 billion, if I am correct in my interpretation of the table in the experts report.
Having said that, I see this as a great opportunity for the company to monetise the asset on which the management and directors have worked on for so many years. It will also allow them to have a war chest to pursue its other opportunities in its portfolio of assets.
I am confident that OZL will exercise the option on the purchase even if its taken over by BHP, as Kalkaroo is such a great asset. Look at the OZL purchase of West Musgrove project from Cassini to see OZL'S track record.
I am in favour of the proposed sale.
I cant believe how cheap the stock is and am surprised the institutions aren't buying, as it is at such a large discount to the cash that will come into the company. It appears I can buy shares at 0.35 cents and get assets worth .57 cents of cash, with another potential 30 cent upside if scenario 1 comes into being re the copper price.
The above doesn't take into account the value of HAV's other projects. Say conservatively 16 cents a share.
The risks are 1) Will OZL excerise the option? 2) Will shareholders approve the sale?
DYOR
GLTA
HAV Price at posting:
36.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)