That is great.
My brief comments on what you’ve logically said are:
1. If sales fell to $560m, there will be a conga line of investors forming outside the company’s offices in Alexandria with butchers knives.
2. The recent update from SFH gave an annual ebitda number, which basically implied no ebitda normalized loss in the second half of FY’18. This is a step change if realized.
3. Management is aware key to improving fortunes is to quicken the pace of loss making store closures, cost reductions at an overheads level and a move away from heavy discounting, refinement of online model etc. The first two are naturally more controllable and depend on basic managerial competency for execution, not to be taken for granted.
On perennial discounting and customer dependency, long term strategic product design changes are required, to inject some “magic” and “beauty” in the product range which requires both leadership that has better fashion sense and ultimately broad based best of class talent changes in the ranks of non-performing designer and marketing personnel. You are talking Jobs and the Think Different campaign, Zara and trendy cheap fast fashion, adidas and Originals etc. This won’t happen overnight. Promotion of elasticised pants in their Millers brand, the company’s flagship; how on earth do they expect the contemporary aged woman to find it appealing? What proportion of sales reduction is attributed to soft consumer sentiment v crap seasonal product? I visited a Rivers store the other day, half the lights were out, stock was untidy, took 10 minutes for sales staff to even look my i.e additional deep rooted shop floor execution problems the group management team is not addressing.
4. Effect of currency. Not to be understated, you’ll find peak profits in the circa 2013/14 years when currency was +90 cents US.
5. Agree, 2018 should be free cashflow neutral on normalized basis.
That is great. My brief comments on what you’ve logically said...
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