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28/02/18
13:36
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Originally posted by Transversal
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Did you end up forecasting net EBITDA improvement in FY 19 from store closures in FY18, can’t recall? What was your maths?
I quote directly from my initial post on this thread (which you can easily check by just scrolling up):
"In terms of what an achievable EBITDA margin could be, once the cost cutting process has been completed, I don’t think it will be anywhere near the 10% level it used to be, given the ongoing structural changes and challenges to the retail business model. But, simply operating reasonable cuts on Employee Benefits and Other Expenses (and considering that the closing down of shops will eventually reduce Rental Costs as well), a 100-200bp improvement to a 4%-5% margin looks eminently achievable to me. Thus, taking 4% as a more conservative margin estimate gives 560m$*4% = 22.4m$ EBITDA for FY2019 ."
The issue I see is the dilution that can potentially be incurred, before getting to that level of EBITDA.
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This another point of failure along with closing stock forecast at 30 June 2018.
With all respect, don’t enter the forecasting business.
“...ongoing structural changes...”; how do you explain Noni B’s +10% ratio?
Due diligence would crucify the lofty nosebleed logic.
Invert, invert, invert!