Hopefully you’ve learnt something here.
A good analyst is a good businessperson and vice versa. Important to also be experienced in the sector, to understand strategy and progress against strategy.
In summary your flaws here were principally as follows:
1. Not aware of the balance sheet funding structure of retailers, including non-cash liability items
2. Forecast profitability that was unsupported (virtually baseless, lofty) and without any regard to direct local competitor financial performance
3. A lack of understanding of the market niche of SFH and what it means for future profitability
4. A lack of understanding of the competitive strength of new warehousing and supply arrangements
5. A lack of understanding of the changes to working capital resulting from lower volume sales and how they impact the balance sheet along with head office savings made
6. Would also add that perhaps also oblivious to senior managerial changes (including key brand management changes) and what it means for the business going forward
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