TLG 1.80% 54.5¢ talga group ltd

Noticed 11,320,075 shares shorted on Shortman as at 29 June. 90...

  1. 54 Posts.
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    Noticed 11,320,075 shares shorted on Shortman as at 29 June. 90 day average volume on ASX is 1,272,097.

    Meaning short ratio of 8.9.

    Not saying this will lead to a squeeze, but there should be upside potential based on shorts alone. Obviously I've been in this stock for a few years based on the qualities of the company I'm sure we all see, I'm just thinking that actually this might be another reason why staying invested will lead to positive outcomes.

    SP up 19c (14.84%) over period 29 May to 29 June. Over the same period short shares on market increased by 4,159,117 (58%). This tells me 1) that buyers are hungry for TLG at current prices, and 2) shorters are trying their best to keep the market cap down prior to ASX 300 rebalance on the third Friday of September (15th). - Of course I'm making a few assumptions here.

    I guess it comes down to permit appeals either way, and I don't think the company will really take off until they start selling anode in quantity, but just trying to look at what could play out over the coming months.

    What I imagine:
    If positive (ie appeals thrown out), intrinsic risk adjusted value of TLG should rise, leading to increased buyer demand and us remaining comfortably within the ASX 300. Pay off for shorters would then lessen and they could look for a crust elsewhere - leading to upwards sp.
    If negative (ie protracted appeals process of 6m or at least beyond 15 September), buyers would likely wait (or look elsewhere while they know TLG isn't running anywhere). Shorters would have incentive to rinse and repeat what we saw from 15 March onwards, pushing price downwards in the interim before index funds follow their mandate to rebalance.

    Excited either way. Positive leads to me being able to throw more TLG into super without sacrificing too much of what I hold outside. Negative leads to a nice top up price.
 
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Last
54.5¢
Change
-0.010(1.80%)
Mkt cap ! $209.8M
Open High Low Value Volume
56.0¢ 56.3¢ 54.5¢ $317.3K 575.1K

Buyers (Bids)

No. Vol. Price($)
9 69041 54.5¢
 

Sellers (Offers)

Price($) Vol. No.
55.0¢ 55502 16
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Last trade - 13.24pm 11/07/2024 (20 minute delay) ?
TLG (ASX) Chart
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