Thought it might be useful to start a new thread for 2024. There is a massive amount of news flow right around the corner, and for newer investors I thought it might be useful to summarise some of the information about TLG that might not be immediately obvious from the annual reports, presentations etc. Thanks to
@howyargoin for much of this information from their excellent post following the 2023 AGM. That post can be found
here.
I have always found the webinars hosted by the Managing Director Mark Thompson (MT) hugely informative, and recommend any new investor take a look at a recent one (they are usually monthly). MT knows the company backwards, is heavily invested, and summarises things clearly and confidently.
Looking forward to others adding the stuff that I’ve missed, I know there’s plenty..
-After the current appeal against the Vittangi mine environmental permit in the Swedish Supreme court,
there are no more appeals. This is the end of the line. 1.8% of appeals of this nature are successful.
- Mark Thompson (Managing Director) has been running TLG for 14 years, and in that time has never sold a single TLG share. He has mortgaged his hour 4 times to buy more shares, and owns 4% of the company. Excellent skin in the game. Talga recently completed a CR at 1.00 that was oversubscribed and scaled back. All directors purchased the full amount ($30,000)
- In 2023 the European Investment Bank has committed €150million senior debt funding towards TLGs anode project. The EIB has extremely high standards and strict criteria for supporting projects. Achieving this support was a massive win for TLG.
- TLG’s product(s) have been through years of testing and verification by many OEM’s (all under NDAs). The highly bespoke, and specific products that TLG manufactures are ‘proven’. Battery anode cannot be bought ‘off the shelf’, it requires rigorous testing, and open, clear communication between anode producer and manufacturer. This is something TLG has been undertaking for years.
- Stage 1 of TLG production is for an integrated mine-to-anode refineryproducing 19,500tpa anode for 24 years. However TLG has plans to expand to 100,000tpa of anode production to help meet Europe's increasing demand for EV grade, green anode. MT is on record as saying, regarding production
“…we currently have got a scoping study to go over 100,000 tons of anode production per year, but I would say that … you know.. we’re continuously reviewing that in light of demand from our customers which is far in excess of that, both within Europe and globally as well..”- 100% of the graphite at the Vittangi mine is anode sized, meaning it is perfect for lithium-ion batteries. This is not the case for other graphite mining operations. The updated Vittangi Graphite Mineral Resource estimate places Talga’s Swedish graphite resources to an estimated total of 70.8Mt averaging 18.8%Cg, containing 13.3Mt of graphite, which is understood to be the largest resource of natural graphite in Europe.
- The Aero lithium project is a potentially valuable asset, but is not a priority for TLG management. Its value is ‘somewhere between zero and 10 billion dollars’ according to Mark Thompson (tongue firmly in cheek). MT has described the lithium as a ‘free kick’ for shareholders, and floated the idea of a partner doing the exploration. TLG will not be putting much money towards this, they are focused on the anode project.
- New restrictions on the export of Chinese battery-grade natural graphite exports began on 1/12/23. According to MT, the TLG phone rang hot upon the news, as OEM’s scrambled to ensure their access to ex-China anode supply. The following picture shows battery and cell makers in Europe:
In reference to the above slide, MT stated in a recent webinar: “
What you see here is a whole bunch of [battery] cell makers building gigafactories in Europe, and uh, nearly 100% of the materials going into those factories is via China .. [in terms of supply] these factories are empty, they have nothing to put in them except Chinese material, and this is why the Chinese permitting restriction [beginning Dec 1 2023]
was so effective in scaring the heebies out of the automakers … [they were] really shaken up by that news, and the phone just started ringing hot straight away”. NB, it is worth noting that Freyer have recently announced plans to move some production to the USA to take advantage of the IRA. This has been discussed at length on the ‘Talga Media’ thread.
There is a lot to learn about Talnode Si (silicon) and the pilot plant in Germany, the Talga R&D facilities in Caimbridge UK, TLG's growing IP portfolio, and other bits and pieces, but I'm running out of steam. Others may want to expand on those, and other things I've forgotten, missed, glossed over.
Broker price targets (there may be more recent updates, these are the ones I could find);
Macquarie:
2.00, (3/23)
Bell Potter:
2.50 (12/23)
UBS:
2.20 (10/23)
Petra Capital:
2.70 (6/23)
Euroz Hartleys:
3.00 (12/22)
(20min delay)
