There has been a lot of discussion as to why that Pesky Shorter is doing his thing. Also why? and for how much longer.
I don't have the answers, but it might be useful to take a step backwards and look at the motivations of the major players: China, USA and Europe.
They all have huge vested interests in how the supply and demand inherent in the World EV market, plays out. Each of the three has so much to win and so much to lose. The stakes could not be higher. Talga has a vested interest in how this interaction plays out, but is such a minor player that it has little real influence on how the spoils will eventually be distributed.
The first observation I would make is that the EV revolution to replace ICEs seems unstoppable. Unlike a lot of the "net zero" rhetoric.
- There is a need to get the petrol and diesel cars/vans/trucks out of the larger Northern hemisphere cities as soon as possible. The health argument.
- The engineering argument is that EVs are much simpler to produce and maintain that ICEs. The engineering argument. Not long before they will be the cheapest option.
Currently China is way ahead of Europe and USA in this race and many pundits (perhaps Talga's Shorter is one) believe unstoppable.
But they have a problem. They need the markets of USA and Europe as well as their own. This is not a given. USA and Europe have signalled that if China is going to play dirty, they will respond in kind. Their car manufacturing industries and battery manufacturers must be protected at any cost. At this point in the argument it is worth pointing out that President (for life) Xi has stated that he wants to rule the World and will use force if necessary.
As a casual observer of this tussle, I notice that each slow and painful move that Europe or USA make: China, with light warp speed has an answer .
Notice China's plans to set up battery plants in Morocco
Notice the number of car manufacturers in USA who wont qualify for protection because China has quietly crept onto their share register. This might be one for Talga to watch.
It seems to me that on balance, Talga is very favourably placed, but there is yet much to play out and the starting pistol is now in the hands of the Swedish High Court.
China is the one to watch. All other players are mostly predictable.
(20min delay)