Did you guys all get the book "Winning Bigly" by Scott Adams (of...

Did you guys all get the book "Winning Bigly" by Scott Adams (of Dilbert fame) for Christmas or what!! I
Yes I'm taking the piss (a little bit) ... the book is circa 2016 and more or less describes the formula used by Donald Trump to win the 2016 election. The "mastery" of persuasion ... as in Persuasion in a world where facts don't matter

According to Adams, Trump's misstatements are not "errors" but the use of a technique called "intentional wrongness persuasion" (not that I'm suggesting its practiced here) ... as long as you provide your reason all is good ... its not a lie if you believe it to be true. CONTROVERSY elevates the message.

Visual imagery ...
" ...that big, beautiful wall" ... everyone imaging 12 foot high, 4 foot thick concrete wall ahla the Berlin wall
becomes for TLG
".... there is not enough pie to go around" ... everyone imaging investors trying to grab whatever piece of pie they can

Anchoring to Hyperbole ... then backing off
"deporting millions of undocumented immigrants ..." and then walking it back to just "the criminals"
becomes for TLG
"...They have them for sure" and then walking it back to "... Just haven't announced them"

@pabs ... you don't mind me uing some of your statements because we have a "rich discussion"

"MT has orders for 100k plus anodes now for sure" ...
It's an absolute (100k+, now, & certain), takes the high ground and leaves plenty of room to roll it back ... OK it was only 50K and gets phased in over 5 years blah blah
Doesn't matter ... its a persuasive argument

"possible that Mitsui and LKAB get 5% each at a valuation pf 10bn being issued the requiste shares at 25AUD."
Not quite an absolute this time but does manage to anchor to hyperbole (and remembering all you need to do is provide the reason ... it does not have to be right) ... 5% of that $10B is $500M and at $25/share is just 20M shares which makes sense as that's 5% of the shares issued. I see the reels spinning the $s.


I feel like I need to make an outlandish statement ... so here's goes
Attempt #1
Quantumscape will produce a SS LiB which will be installed in a VW EV before TLG produces a LiB
(well aware the TLG is not a battery manufacturer).


@mpk1980 ... project financing ... this is key alright. Lets see what is delivered in that regard. I don't wish to paraphrase this, and it is probably the most important part of BANK project finance IMO. The highlighting is mine ... Banks won't take "volume risk" for a non-traded market product ... graphite/graphene/Talnode ... are specialty products which I think MT was getting at. So the offtake is a necessary precursor for credit acceptance ... and that offtake has to been with a creditworthy counterparty (enter Mitsui - which is a related party so read the 3rd paragraph). The offtake has to be rock solid!.



The use of project financing is likely to see an off balance sheet (i.e. off of TLG) Special Purpose Vehicle incorporated LLC with Mitsui (as likely sole(?) marketing party) and LKAB (as likely mine operator) with Mitsui "lending" their credit rating to the venture.

Interesting though the sale of 5% to Mitsui and LKAB raises $1B for TLG (and leaves them responsible for 90% of Capex ... unless of course 50% project finance then they have 40% responsibility ... no problem as they have $1B+ in cash).

"I suspect we will see large institutions take big stakes of 300mm to 500m each at a sensible valuation raising 2bn ish and I HOPE list in the US. "
so I interpret that being 20% sold for $2B issuing 80M shares at $25

and just for fun I've invented an entity called PPE (no not Personal Protective Equipment ... although someone springs to mind that might have a stake in Ansell) but Pabs Private Equity hereinafter referred to as PPE - to top it off PPE is a SPAC looking for an EV battery materials project.

PPE has a social conscience but doesn't work for free (which explains the "Founders Shares") and is offering to get you the SPAC IPO investor into a company with incredibly high margins that cannot be competed away (... beware of hyperbole). This SPAC will raise $1B alongside the $1B in FPA from Mitsui and LKAB. The ONLY financial marketing slide is as follows:

THIS IS NOT REAL .... IT IS IMAGINERY




I know some here would have seen very similarly layed out slides ('cos QS has been referenced many times).

OK ... the plan here is that TLG would list on the US Markets via a SPAC

In the slide above (which is by no means representative of anything and happens to be in AUD$ as a reference currency) we are the existing TLG shareholders that retain 80% of the new issued share of the merged company post transaction. So roughly there are 400M shares presently ... means we get 2 new shares for each of our old ones with each new share worth $10 ... yeah we are rich!!!

The PPE SPAC IPO investors put in $1B buying 100M shares at $10. That becomes 80M shares of the merged company as PPE nabs 20M via "Founders Shares" ... since it put the deal together.

TLG is happy since we just got $1,750M cash onto the balance sheet ... wont need any debt now would we ... unless we have even bigger plans.

And the beauty of it is the multiples ... an EBITDA muliple of just 7.5x on 2025 EBITDA .... I mean cmon ... what's not to like (Aussie are you serious??).

This from a previous post of mine .. the RHS of the numbers was based off of QS closing price Dec 4, 2020 of $42.50 whereas the LHS is at the SPAC $10 Price. We only care about the MULTIPLES ... do we look expensive??





I said it was all a bit of fun. I think its possible to make any scenario work with enough smoke, mirrors, diversion and hyperbole.

If someone was willing to pay the price for the 20% of the business, thereby valuing our retained 80% the way I've set it out then they are marketing geniuses to get that valuation monetized. IT IS POSSIBLE. But is it probable?

Hope you enjoyed the story