Talga Valuation.

Thought I would start a new thread for all of us who are "Overweight " ( Talga of course).

The purpose is to stay mildly interested in a topic while we wait.

So I've been on record for at least 6 months that I would be livid and angry if TLG was valued at anything less than $10bn as part of any deal.

Reasons are as follows:

1. We have to understand the "sum of the parts " We have the highest volume and best performing anode business planned. We have an extremely effective graphene business that pulls tonnes off the Tal C process (non batch, it's a big point) . Our separate graphene applications business has products already in testing.

2. Silanano was valued at $3bn based on a product, similar to Tal Si as I understand it. QS SP is currently in the toilet at a valuation of $11Bn on an SS battery which will not go into production until 2024. We are expanding Tal Si samples to customers, seems be are further ahead than Sila. Based on what we know, I believe its our product is in Toyota SS.

3. The TAM for coating and chemical additives is around 48m tonnes. MT stated, in time he could see demand exceeding that for anode in USD.

4. If we look at the 20+ Megafactories in Europe, we will like get 70% of market share. My view we will need to be producing 500ktpa in 2023.

5. Finally another part of our business is battery metals, absolutely critical to the future of Europe. A review has been done IMO and the decsion to get rid of the iron ore as its truly non core. My view is that they have found a massive resource, based on the size of the K2 conductor and actually looking properly for the first time.

Since the Sila and QS deals, the market fundamentals have moved in our favour. Biden, Europe, the IEA have all announced since then.

So MT should be congratulated for the delay (perceived or real)


I'm still gonna be unhappy with anything less than 10Bn for the "sum of the parts"

But even $5bn should be a healthy multiple from here ( all numbers in USD)

Any comments