1. Ok, as negotiation value, I agree. Its a difference if you see the value of the company at a certain level or you think the market might value the company at that level. I value Talga as well on $10B for negotiation purposes, but I do not think the market would agree with that valuation.
2. Maybe I am using the term wrong. In execution risk, I mean: Can Talga actually grow that big that fast? They have the mining partner and others, but still, its a very tricky feat to grow a company, any company, at that scale. Can they make the factories fast enough? Do they get the permits and regulator ducklings in a row on time? I dont think there is a danger for them to fail the business, but I see the difficulty of the task organizationally and it CAN drag on longer than we want.
3. So only 2 years to get the mining permits, the mine it self up and running, the extraction plant (ore -> graphite), the refinery plant (graphite -> concentrate) and the Talnode factory(ies) (concentrate -> Talnode-C) for that scale all in 2 years? No offance, but that is an unrealistic expectation.
4. I also give it a 95% probability that is going to happen. I mean, the ploint that the cut-off concentration of graphite for us is at the same level as the mean concentration on other mines is pretty telling on the deposit concentration. We have good indication that its also the largest deposit known so far.. with the graphite plate size being the right one is just icing on the cake. Fully agree on this one.
The market would certainly support what you outline. The demand is there. The political will is there, we even have the deposit being strategically important. The technology is available. The partners and us need to sign a piece of paper. All indication is green. There is basically not a single bad indicator to be found. But its not the exponentiality of the situation that one needs to understand. In this case its not. If Talga were to plan and build a 19ktpa production line and double it each year, it would be exponential. But thats not how Talga outlines its operation. Talga is taking the 19ktpa plan and file it in the round cabinet to replace it with 100ktpa plan in practically the same time frame. You are talking about 500ktpa in half the time. Its an explosion, a complete change of plans, not an exponential development.
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