You have many valid points.But I don't understand why you think...

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nickidk4

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26/06/23

19:59

Post #: 68479334
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Originally posted by JSSF: ↑

The forecast spreadsheet is optimistic, and the EH report leans conservative, there has to be a middleground somewhere?

I wanted to share my own thoughts because I'm guilty of seeing big estimates and immediately thinking it's plausible. Even if it's impossibly unlikely this plausibility impacts me sub-consciously whether I like it or not. Everyone includes their personal touch in these DIY spreadsheets, the most popular and fun to read estimates are always based on the idea of "What is theoretically possible if everything is perfect". But I feel much safer and grounded assuming some things won't be perfect, because it rarely ever is.

All IMO, a less eye-watering perspective is that to achieve the the planned growth, everything has to go, well, exactly to plan from here on out. I tend to think P/E of 15 may be a bit high (why 15 when other producers are typically 10 or less?). I think we can also assume overheads will be up compared to previous estimates. At this rate my "dream" price is $30 by 2030 and realistically I think it will be less.

$50+ by 2030 is difficult to imagine, even with my optimistic cap on. Not only does execution need to be perfect, but every assumption, every unknown, has be in favour of Talga. No significant capex blowouts, no competitors stealing significant market share. EV trend to continue as projected, extreme customer demand to persist. Graphite demand in battery tech to continue as expected. Sweden to allow a mining ramp-up of 20x, Anode production to ramp up 20x. Additional production paid for without significant dilution. All debt covered. No technical risk. No logistical risk. List goes on. All in just 7 years. Assuming all of this will be smooth sailing feels like lying to myself.

Even the $250 by 2030+ 1m/tpa, which I understand is just a fun "beyond our wildest dreams estimate" might be more like $100 by 2040+. Still need to ground our imaginations in sincere reality otherwise we end up with folks like pabs who call for a MC of $1T by 2030!

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You have many valid points.

But I don't understand why you think Talga should have a P/E of 10 like they were a mining company without growth.

Talga have insane margins, soon to be insane growth and they are more a chemical tech company than a mining company.

I see a P/E of 15 as very conservative.

TLG Price at posting: $1.41 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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