Talga's Current NPV, page-83

For those that haven't seen it. That DreamRider tweet was just a screenshot of the Morningstar projections, which I have never seen anyone take those projections too seriously. But I would say that they have the right spirit at least; that we should see Talga and other ex-China graphite plays continue to rise for all the reasons we know already.

I am not sure what is driving NVX's valuation right now. I am not an investor, but I have done a little bit of research. They are kicking off with 10ktpa of anode in 2023, ramping to 40ktpa in 2025, and then 150ktpa in 2030. So the market is forward-looking enough to gaze beyond the initial 10ktpa. I'd also argue that NVX doesn't have the permit risks like TLG, they are also operating in a jurisdiction that is more friendly for business, and they have shored up their project with some financing via Phillips 66. I have valued TLG conservatively at about $30 for 100ktpa. And if we assume NVX's margins are equal or greater than TLG's, then they should be worth more than $30 at full production, even taking into account their greater SOI. This estimate also doesn't consider their cathode materials and battery testing tech, which I wouldn't even know how to value anyway. My point is, NVX may have much further to run beyond their current SP and they are arguably further along than Talga.

Moving onto Talga. In all honesty, 2021 was a mixed bag. If they were a sports team, they probably would have just missed the playoffs. We got a slew of solid announcements like the LCA, the UK feasibility study, and drill results. As well as more "soft progress" like the company improving their marketing (nicer looking presentations, the Vittangi deposit video) and key appointments in Melissa Roberts, Per-Erik Lindvall, and various sales managers across the world. Conversely, we also got a bunch of delays (UK study, DFS, anode production), the abrupt Smedvig sell-off, and some confusing anns. I believe we will get another repeat of 2021 with more sideways action unless Talga gets permits, sales agreements, or (favourable) project funding.

I think it is at least another 6 months for TLG's spaceship to begin to take off. But realistically I am thinking 12-18 months. My hope is that by remaining pragmatic and patient, I will be rewarded.