talisman, page-2

I agree the offer must be reasonable else why would they want so long to consider it? The question now is realistically by considering it they( board) either are ( should be) working in the best interests of all Shareholders in ensuring the offer is fair and rewarding to current SH.

Issues may exist around the bondholders. I cannot recall the terms but I seem to remember that at each anniversary they are allowed to convert or be paid out based on some formula. If company has first right to payback the bondholders then

Clearly if the offering group has somehow managed to tie up those bonds and the shares behind them this may be what is pushing the board to consider as they know that these bonds can become a blocking stake. At 37 cents that would be about 220 million new shares and clearly a trigger for an offer as it is greater than 20%.
Assuming the above then no further dilution and if indeed they have paved the way for sale of one or more other assests to ROC it makes their ability to offer between 600-700 Million a possibility.

The Block 22/12 in China is valued at 350 million by Ords or between 20-23 cents per share in depending on risked or unrisked.

Not sure ROC would pay that but maybe they have achieved a sale of about between 200-250 with some additional volume targets.

Im sure they don't want it to be hostile but if it was lowball bid below 50 cents you believe they would have dismissed it already and the group would be faced with hostile battle which would be long drawn out and costly.

So offer fair and reasonable bid and find ways to help make your bid more reasonable for your own investment hurdles.

53 cents offer is 42% above current close or probably more like 60% above monthly weighted average.

that is about 680 Million MC.

So lets assume they offer 680 and get back 250. that would mean the offer becomes 430 with some other assets they can sell current debt is offset by recent Osaka gas transaction + existing cash. Leaving just the bonds 80 million. They run to 2016 not sure what happens though in acquisition but clearly that also adds to the 430 in total 510.

If the bonds get converted it will cost alot more per share or alot less per share if prices paid don't change.

So I'm guessing the offer will be in 50-55 cents range is you assumes some other asset transactions are included.

I guess we will all know soon enough and the above is pure speculation at this stage.