You know, what I find strange out of all this is how there was such an uproar when Chinalco wanted 18% of RIO, and then now Minmetals wants 100% of OZL the anti-chinese sentiment is strangely subdued.
Everyone was screaming up and down saying Swanny would be crazy to give 18% of our 2nd largest miner to a Chinese government backed entity. It would be clearly against national interest, so they say.
Now Another CCP backed entity wants 100% , ie full control as opposed to just being a passive 18% investor, with no control over the company's operations, and no one sees a national interest problem.
As far as market efficiency is concerned, well, even if you thought there's a 50% chance Swanny will knock back minmetals, that's a 50% chance it goes to zero, and 50% chance it goes to 82.5c. I think the market's pretty efficient most the times, and there's no reason why it might not be this time, so my opinion of the market's interpretation is that it's saying there's a better than even chance of FIRB approval.
It might be a stretch but I reckon there's a chance some clued up instos would've hired the best national interest experts to work out the probability of rejection/success, then short sold or bought up to roughly reflect those probabilities.
OZL Price at posting:
$4.95 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
