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Justadabble

10,383 Posts.

3462

28/04/23

01:09

Post #: 67491812
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Originally posted by Brobel: ↑

Hey @SkyPunter

Just thought you may be interested to know I have completed my research into TPD... and am a new holder as of today.

A number of things piqued my interest:
Imminent cashflows from Walyering (an A-grade asset I know quite well from my STX holding) with circa $30m p.a c/f.... that's pretty good for a stock with an EV of ~$70m. Plus with WA gas prices trending higher, additional revenue from uncontracted spot sales and lets not forget condensate sales, can really polish-up my back of the envelope FCF forecasts. I do believe the SP is currently discounted based on this alone. The B/S is in pretty good shape and it would appear further equity dilutions are unlikely in the near term. They may very well move to taking on debt in the mid-term on far better terms than pre-production, not too dissimilar to what STX has done today with MBL.
Mongolia... the announcement today was a good read... first cab off the rank and all looking hunky dory... I don't think any value is in the current SP for Mongolia... IMO it's only valuing the PB assets and that in itself is still discounted, IMO . So Mongolia, although I did say o/s O&G is not my liking, it does intrigue me... if they can prove up 400BCF that will be a significant kicker. I think overall there is real opportunity for upside here. I have done some research into peers such as JGH and EXR and I like the TPD Mongolia story... close tp energy hungry China etc. but having said that, I did not invest for it. PB is what I am here for.
Longer term, I do like the extensive broader PB asset portfolio. Although no drilling in the PB until CY 24 & 25... it looks like drilling 1H CY24 is very likely... but overall IMO again there is real potential value to be unlocked with further farm-ins and farm-outs to come.
The next 6 months for TPD will be interesting and I will be very happy to sit and watch what happens. Assuming the commissioning of Walyering goes smoothly, there will be value unlocked through not only what the company can achieve through executing on their well articulated strategy (IMO) but also external catalysts such as the obvious PB M&A activity. More corporate action will be played out here, especially so given the poor result of Lockyer 2 for NWE/MIN. STX are absolutely kicking goals and they are excellent company to have as a JV partner. Remember there are only 3 independent O&G players left in the PB... STX and TPD are 2 of those. Corporate action will come, eventually. My reasoning for this is due to the tightening WA domgas market. Prices will trend higher. There will be more downstream refining in WA, think lithium and other green critical metals that require significant energy to process, gas demand will increase, not decrease. This is the reason Hancock and MIN moved on WGO and NWE respectively. Also... export... eventually more on-shore gas will need to go to the NWS, as the NWS will have a significant shortfall and the likes of WDS and McGowan will need to ensure LNG keeps being shipped to Japan & broader Asia-Pac with 100% surety of supply. Whatever the cost.

So yes interesting times ahead, very happy to be onboard. Today was an initial entry for me and I do intend to buy more on any pull backs in SP.

btw it was a fun exercise researching... and reading some insightful posts on HC.... kudos to a great forum. I hope to contribute when I can.

GLTA

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Welcome to the register Brobel. TPD has been the "Pantene" of PB stocks for a while now but I suspect you have timed your entry exquisitely. I agree we can expect some upside surprise to future earnings with both spot gas sales and condensate offtake, just need a bit of belief from the market that we are the real deal. Look forward to your input.
TPD Price at posting: 17.3¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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