@Sk1nman I hope you make lots of bucks along the way and with them end up holding way more shares tightly until they get to $2.
16c is good buying in my view.
Until the debt funding is announced there's always a chance of a CR so hopefully not to much longer so we all know where we stand.
In nervous markets will will get marked down for being the junior partner and not having control as well as SL being overseas.
In buoyant markets where risk is off these factors will be ignored and the potential upside priced in.
These are just 2 mindsets that allow us to make money when actually the circumstances haven't changed.
@david absolutely correct about the possible downturn and also what happens to prices if Ukraine and Russia stopped the conflict. Lots of uncertainty does create opportunities.
@SeabreezeL I did raise the question of takeover in my phone call the other day. Of course I could not receive any direct response. What I did get and some of this is interpretation is that TMK and TPD would like to take this a far as possible. PetroChina MOU is with TMK not TPD. TMK would want to stay as controlling partner so how it unfolds is unclear but David Casey is seen as super pivotal in this project moving forward from all parties. Every company needs to have an exit strategy depending on circumstances and TPD would have one if PetroChina come knocking and made an offer to good to refuse.
We have a good relationship with Strike and they are looking for a JV partner for Ocean Hill so it will be interesting to see how it unfolds. They can not offer it to anyone less than what TPD offered so I don't feel they will buy out TPD share of Waylering because while it will produce good cashflow they have a lot on their plate and would have to pay a hefty price to make it worthwhile to TPD as its not really in our advantage to take a discount in the short term when the cashflow will fund so much for us moving forward.
The two key factors now IMO is what STX gets offered for Ocean Hill and the timing of Waylering cashflow coming in will determine if we are in a position to JV Ocean Hill unless and this is a big unknown how much we are asking for our debt facility? Does anyone have a guess? Until now Im just been think enough to get us through to first gas but are these guys aiming for a lot more for Ocean Hill?
@Stevej1979 the potential value has been answered by some brave enough to throw out scenarios like
@tui and
@SkyPunter. Lots to overcome but the potential for this to set people up for life is very real. I try and show lots of 18-25 year olds who are considering buying a house or trying to get a head a map forward if they are interested. One is a 18 y.o. uni student who has saved $50k working at KFC and when she understood the risk to reward she made some interesting decisions. I encouraged one to go shift back into mum and dads for 18 months and save like crazy and invest the hell out of their money and its amazing when some see the potential not just TPD, the choices they then choose to make is quite mindboggling good. Get lucky with SL $2, get real lucky and Condor is a winner $4 (might be 2025). Please don't shoot me down.
Shalom happy trading/Investing
