tamiflu end of shelf life roche gilead

For mine, its results of the phase 3 LANI trial .....undertaken in conjunction with Daiichi Sankyo - (and due out any day now)......which is the big company short-medium-longterm share price driver for BTA.(LANI is what Biota is all about, from now on.)

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Here why:-

Tamiflu and Relenza Government stockplies (about $6 billion
worth)...have a shelf like which all begin to expire in a few years time....ie I am referring to the massive world wide stockpiling which commenced in 2005

LANI works like Relenza.....it is an neuraminidase inhibitors which prevents the release of new influenza viruses from infected cells and stopping the infection from spreading.

Biota has developed its neuraminidase inhibitor zanamivir (Relenza) to be delivered via an inhaler directly to the site of action, in the lung. Relenza provides a rapid antiviral action and reduced systemic side effects.

Biota's second generation influenza products are long-acting neuraminidase inhibitors (LANIs). Also inhaled, LANIs provide a longer period of action which allows them to be administered only once a week, instead of twice daily as is the case with current products.

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Biota and Daiichi Sankyo have both strongly hinted at success of this trial.

Refer to comments above...and previous posts suggesting influenza resistance to Tamiflu. It would seem that LANI will have no competition, when stockplies will need to be replaced.

Now to put the whole deal, or situation, into place re Biota future prospects...here is a brief cut and paste from a 2005 story involving Roche and Gilead.

The story is self explanatory....the real key item for me though, was the Gilead share price gap on news of the new agreement.

Go to last paragraph in the story...the increase ALONE in Tamiflu royalties say, way back in 2005... Gilead market cap increase by A$2.8 billion (compares to BTA whole market capitalisation of 1/10 of that)

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By ANDREW POLLACK and TOM WRIGHT
Published: November 17, 2005
Correction Appended

Under pressure to increase output of its flu drug Tamiflu, the Swiss pharmaceutical giant Roche agreed yesterday to share control of production and sales of the medicine with Gilead Sciences, the California biotechnology company that invented it.

The agreement, which resolves a contract dispute, comes as governments around the world are trying to stockpile Tamiflu, in case the avian flu that is ravaging birds in Asia leads to a human epidemic.

"Both Roche and Gilead recognized the urgent need to resolve our dispute and remove any distraction that might in any way impede Roche's ability to address an important global health need," John F. Milligan, Gilead's chief financial officer, said yesterday.

Under the agreement, Gilead said that it expected its royalty rate on Tamiflu sales for this year to increase to about 18 or 19 percent. Roche has previously estimated Tamiflu sales this year will triple to at least $755 million.

Gilead's royalties would be up from an effective rate of about 10 percent until now, because the deal also means that Gilead will no longer have to contribute to Roche's manufacturing costs. Roche is paying Gilead $62.5 million to make that change retroactive to the beginning of 2004.

Shares of Gilead rose nearly 8 percent, up $3.99 to close at $55.63. Shares of Roche fell 1.3 Swiss francs to 192.1 francs in Zurich.