tamiflu resistance cluster in scotland, page-2

IMO and based on what we saw with seasonal flu last yr and the vast numbers expected and infected currently in the nth hemisphere with swine flu -numbers to date of H724y tamiflu resistance are relativly small @ around 50 confirmed world wide.It seems inevitable that this will change soon. and not withstanding the comments made at bta agm - this will have a large effect on the tamiflu brand- It will be headline news over and over once bigger numbers start to appear - and i know if i had the flu and knew resistance was on the rise as an average joe in the nth hemishpere -i'd be asking for the alternative.sure some of you will be thinking - how does this affect our royalties - apart from maybe putting pressure on gsk to make further increases in production - and maybe a fast track on lani -
The fact is perception will play a large part in our sp rise under that scenerio- look at biocryst went from less than $2 to over $12 on possability permiravir would get registered (they will make 22 million on this outbreak)and have to date never made any other sale - their iv product has no mass market potential and will succumb to the same resistance profile as tamiflu.
Look imo for a bta superspike on news of a mass increase in H724y tamiflu resistance circulation in the near future.