IMO and based on what we saw with seasonal flu last yr and the...

IMO and based on what we saw with seasonal flu last yr and the vast numbers expected and infected currently in the nth hemisphere with swine flu -numbers to date of H724y tamiflu resistance are relativly small @ around 50 confirmed world wide.It seems inevitable that this will change soon. and not withstanding the comments made at bta agm - this will have a large effect on the tamiflu brand- It will be headline news over and over once bigger numbers start to appear - and i know if i had the flu and knew resistance was on the rise as an average joe in the nth hemishpere -i'd be asking for the alternative.sure some of you will be thinking - how does this affect our royalties - apart from maybe putting pressure on gsk to make further increases in production - and maybe a fast track on lani -
The fact is perception will play a large part in our sp rise under that scenerio- look at biocryst went from less than $2 to over $12 on possability permiravir would get registered (they will make 22 million on this outbreak)and have to date never made any other sale - their iv product has no mass market potential and will succumb to the same resistance profile as tamiflu.
Look imo for a bta superspike on news of a mass increase in H724y tamiflu resistance circulation in the near future.