Haptin,I agree with many of the statements made by Hunter Hall...

Haptin,
I agree with many of the statements made by Hunter Hall and Morel about BTA.

The current sp had been seriously compromised by interested players capping the sp and idiotic statements from Peter Cook.

It is almost unbelievable that on the days resistance of the swineflu H1N1 virus to Tamiflu was reported, BTA sp dropped. Even as the list of countries where such Tamiflu resistance are increasing the sp hardly moved! This is unbelievable and irrational.

Not withstanding my negative views of the CEO, I am convinced the coming GSK sales report will show the demand for Relenza exceeds the planned 60 million courses p.a production capacity. In 2007 despite Relenza capturing a miniscule 5% of the anti-viral sales GSK was forced by Governments to increase production beyond 30 million courses p.a (or possibly could even be as high as 45 million – read the link in my earlier post). The Relenza sales to the Australian stockpile now formed 1/3 and in Japan Relenza outsold Tamiflu. This was BEFORE these cases of Tamiflu resistance swine flu virus were reported.

When 5% market share equates to between 30 to 45 million courses; 33% to 50% market share should be between 180 million to 450 million courses. Thus even if we take a conservative view, 100 million courses should be achievable.

In the recent Northern Hemisphere flu season Tamiflu became totally useless against the H1N1 season flu virus. If (and not when) Tamiflu becomes useless against the swineflu H1N1 virus, the demand for Relenza should spiral upwards.

The market has not even consider the true value of the potential Relenza sales and absolutely has not given value to LANI.