Let me preface what I am about to post by saying that I have...

Let me preface what I am about to post by saying that I have been in and out of KOV several times on a short term basis and the trades have been quite lucrative. I can also say that I would have done better staying in for the long term even at todays SP. Now I am back doing my DD prior to coming back in after the drop in price. Firstly I must say that @madamanswer has done a very good job exploring the external factors and assessing the factors affecting KOV in the current macro environment and I take account of what those posts point out. The metrics based on HY22 are very good with the exception that they admit to having to be vary careful with cashflow due to the holding of high inventory because of supply issues of materials. They have credit risk insurance and have well explained adequate impairment and valuations on the balance sheet. On that basis they look like a good proposition but I am hesitant at this exact point of time. Not just because as you say it is "tanking" but for some well set out reasons in their HY22 guidance which might be spooking some retail investors who are not bothering to look harder. They are 1. continued supply chain issues 2. staff issues relating to Covid19 (which are not over yet as the newer more virulent variants come in and cause staff sick days) 3. Increased material costings causing repricing of goods and services as yet not quantifiable 4. HY22 will be more comparable with HY21 which is Sales $13.4m less - EBIT $4m less - NPAT $3.8m less than HY22. While these outlook figures at face value do not look good I set out what the FY22 figures will look like if we add HY21 figures to HY22 figures to give a forecast FY22 set of numbers which would look like this :-

	Accounting item	FY22 estimate	FY21 actual	increase%
1	Sales	88.8	69.79	27.2%
2	EBIT	14.46	8.88	63.7%
3	NPAT	10.26	6.05	69.5%

Now nobody is going to sneeze at those sort of numbers I would hope and I am confident of management's ability to overcome the hurdles. There is no way I can quantify what retail investors would think of the above figures. You would think that they would have to be at the very least somewhere between what they hoped they would be (ie high of $8.25 ) and where the outlook places us ( ie between high of $8.25 and now at $7.25). The dividend might go down a smidgeon due to wanting to improve their cash flow position. So IMO it certainly does not look bad at all and there is at least some probable upside despite the apparent "tanking". I am going back in and you will see my position change on any further comments.