Australia is heading into a recession of a generation on the back of the BIGGEST private debt in any develooped economy. Now government debt is also becoming a problem (and will trend much worse).
Wouldn't be surprised if the AUD will hit 80c (as the housing bubble here implodes). With the AUD heading for the sewer, AGO wil be making money HAND OVER FIST whatever the IO spot price.
Arrium estimated recently that every one-cent movement in the Australian dollar is directly worth - on an annual basis - up to $12 million in earnings before interest and tax.
Given it has lost 6¢ over the past 18 days, Arrium could have an extra $70 million or so to play with if it stays at this level for the next 12 months. And that's just the direct impact; further gains would be made in terms of competing against imports.
AGO Price at posting:
86.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held