"Yes, if there is such a Ta2O5 shortage looming that even Talison is eyeing developments, then WHY doesn't GIP's Abu Dabbab get the nod straight away, given that it is two years out from production, and can produce profitably"
The most realistic explanation here would be that GIP has tied itself so tight to the Germans in terms of the offtake and finance and that it is such a sweet deal that GIP is loath to give it away by going with other parties.
A point of interest is was there any mention of EXCLUSIVITY in the financial arrangements with the German banks?
Whatever the case I found it facinating that GIP has been spruiking itself all over the tantalum shop,no doubt looking for more business.
In this context perhaps the lack of project go-ahead has something to do with HSC not wanting enough Syncon that allows the finance guarantees offered by the Germans to take place,hence they need other Ta syncon consumers o come to the party.
Whatever the case it always directly relates back to Ta demand and the fact that it must get back to a certain threshold before Abu D can press the go button.
The blood tantalum issue wasnt an issue in the days of SGW supply and it was quite apparent that Ta consumers,Cabots/HSC primarily, were quite willing to pay top dollar for their Ta stockpiles.They held large stockpiles too due to the turn of the millenium Ta shortages that pushed up the price of Ta to nasty levels.
I guess one could say with Ta demand down quite dramatically from the levels in those days, that large stockpiles have become a thing of the past and any future offtake demand will base itself on a hand to mouth basis.In other words the likes of Cabots,HCS,Ningxia will no longer need to restock large stockpiles but base their offtakes on the current demand for Ta.
One also wonders on just how far these Ta cosumers will let the price of Ta go up before they want a cheaper source of Ta.It seems that if there is no hurry to get a cheap source such as Abu D up and running that the industry is prepared to once again pay big money for their Ta.
A serious question that must be asked is has the Ta demand dropped to such a degree that higher Ta price thresholds can now be paid due to the relative lack of use of Ta in the usual electronic gizmos?
In the end do such questions become irrelevant in the grand scheme of Ta things because its all reflected in the overall Ta demand and the price at which the market is prepared to pay for that Ta.
These a heady ideas to thrash around and really only industry luminaries would have the slightest idea.The fact that Zogbis mag has published that recent item and also that he apparently HASNT taken up the Commerce batton after his trip to that project perhaps indicates something in the background of Ta politics.The only other "likely" he has mentioned as of late has been Talison and to be quite honest do we think the time/money/effort will be put back into Wodgina/greenbushed to restart at such elevated prices?
I hope there are some other lines of thought and research that prompt the GIPsters not to loose hope entirely.Its funny but Im still expecting some form of positive arrangements to be made one day to extract this esoteric stuff.
The other positive is that the Egyptians havnt given up on GIP either which surely would have been a distinct possibility given how long this project has been waiting now.Perhaps its simply a function of them not having a clue on the stuff and JT is an industry stalwart with much Ta knowledge.After all its not as if its a commodity like oil or gold that has the perception of immediate demand and adding substantially to egypts bottom line as has Sukari and recent oil project starts.
d.
AR1 Price at posting:
3.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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