Target $1.77 per share

After today ann i crunched a few numbers and came up with the below, please run your own number and let me know how mine stack up as these are purely musings..

AMI Structure
Debt per share = 45M / 855 M SOI = .05
Cash per share = 65M / 855 M SOI = .076
Cash per share = 0.026c

Peak’s Chronos will be mined for the next 6 months and as reported the stellar numbers released today can’t be used in guidance. In saying that they will be mining the pod for the next 6 months before moving onto one of the other (multiple) high grade pods).

This being said I get the following:

AMI annouced 19,116 oz had been mined from Peak for the month of April, this means that Hera hit 5,774 oz for the month.

The guidance given for Peak for the first half of the calendar year has now been upgraded to 55-65K oz, so lets take 60k oz..

Considering 19k has already been mined from Peak for the March quarter, that means we can expect 41k for the June quarter + 17k from Hera = 58k oz for June.

Hera hit 5,774 and looks ontrack for another stellar quarter (as annouce they are mining the high grade North Pod so wouldn’t expect anything less).. so assume 17k oz for quarter

Peak gave an AISC of $800 for the Jan quarter, i think it is reasonable to use the same because as AMI have sacked excess staff and have proven they are professional operators it is likely that it could be lower..

Assuming an AUD AU price of $1700 and a bloody conservative AISC for Peak of $800 and $400 for Hera I get the following
Peak June Quarter = $48,000,000
Hera June Qtr = $20,400,000
AMI June QTR = $68,000,000

AMI’s FY 18 earninigs for previous QTR’s are as follows:
15.5M for Sep
21.2M for Dec
28.5 for March
68M for June
= $133,200,000 FY 18.

This equates to .155c per share in eanings (This is bigger than ASX:SAR from what i understand), this means we are currently at a PE of 3.5.

As we can’t expect these stellar numbers to continue i revert back to conservative previous workings..

FY 18 Guidance on Annual Production
Peak = Approx 90 -100K oz
Hera = approx 100K oz gold equivelant

AMI group guidance approx 200-210k $900-1000 AUD, assuming an AISC of $950 (mid point of guidance) AUD gold price of $1,700 = $190M per annum.

AMI have stated these projects have an 8 year mine life (this includes zero exploration potential and they have a shit load) so i will apply a PE of 8 which + cash per share which = $1.77.

$1.77 discounts the current quarters earning to zero and should be considered extemely conservative, could probable throw another 10% ontop but i prefer to under estimate..

Considering AMI have now absoloutely smashed it and have major funds on board i believe a normal industry PE ratio of 12- 15 is reasonable, given they have stated and New Gold have stated the prospectivity of the area..

PE of 12 = $2.64
PE of 15 = $ 3.30

To put this into context, SFR who don’t have a mine life of more than 4 years had been trading at a PE of around 12 last Dec (when i last looked), GOR & NCZ have a market caps bigger than us today and have never made a dollar and are relying on the market for funding.

These are all my opinions and mine alone, as disclosed i own shares in this company. Do your own research and check all numbers yourself, speak to a professional. This is not advice and just my take on the current state of affairs, all information has been taken from AMI reports an calculated by myself.