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jagjeet28a

2 Posts.

16/09/24

10:42

Post #: 75689590
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Originally posted by Lord Bell: ↑

Jag from the official Singapore export import figures....produced by the Official Singapore Government Statistics on Trade.

I recently read that according to some economists that the USA numbers indicate that the USA is rapidly slowing with some saying "as a moving picture "USA is actually in Recession.

Value of the US stock market is now the second highest in 150 years 2022 had the higher market valuation number.Every other major economy would be in recession without immigration such as the UK and Australia ..pressures are coming to bear with house prices in certain cities in Australia ,Uk and Europe beginning to fall.

I quoted the Singapore number because it is an exceptionally dynamic economy and a 50% drop in exports to the USA I found quite startling. It's even higher than the 45% drop to Europe ...and we can understand this with the sharp increase in Energy Prices .

As I said Jag I take this fall in Singapore exports rightly or wrongly as a major sign of a fall in U.S. Economic Activity as most exports from Singapore to the USA are chips and advanced technology ..

Incidentally US savings are now very low with credit card debt still rising ....Indicating the U.S. consumer is sorely pressed in spending and the US consumer makes up 60% plus of US Demand.

At present the Warren Buffet indicator ie the price of the US stock market relative to the value of the actual US economy is almost twice . This excessive pricing is an another danger signal of overvaluation....and as we know Warren has been selling shares raising the liquidity of Berkshire Hathaway .

Now I emphasise "it is impossible to be sure of a market correction at any specific time"....the sum of the evidence is all we can look at and it clearly shows that on a number of measures the high US Stock Market Price is completely out of kilter with its value and the slowing US economy...and this dichotomy can ...and often signals a Stock market correction.

For those interested in market behaviour and Stock Market valuations I suggest reading about the Stock Market bubbles of the past...like the Tulip Mania ie the Bubble in Holland and the UK South Sea Bubble. An interesting read is "The end of the everything Bubble" by Alasdair Nairn a Scottish Actuary and Fund Manager....where he provides discussion and views on charts and valuations on the present US Stockmarket.
This US Bubble has grown considerably since his book was published two years ago.Another interesting study is "The Madness of Crowds".
You can also watch some Press and TV interviews of Alasdair Nairn discussing his book on U Tube.

All the best to all

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ok - will also check this myself

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ok - will also check this myself

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