1. @Lord Bell Please provide the details of why you claimed...

1. @Lord Bell Please provide the details of why you claimed (unrealistically too bullish, IMO) "The fundamental value of WHC is $18.96" (& in your analysis, what is the assumed average price of coking & met coal over the next 12 months)?







2. Since the US $114b stimulus package (not particularly large by China's standards) announced by China on 30.9.24, China's A50 stock index has risen by c.20%+, now stabilising around 13200.

CHINA50 Index Charts and Quotes — TradingView

Many MSM experts stated this will NOT be sufficient to provide the growth China is seeking in its "moribund" economy, burdened by a disastrous & massive oversupply of residential properties (whose prices have fallen c. 20-30%%). Many MSM experts have stated further large stimulus packages will be necessary.

China's $114 billion stimulus package immediately boosted its stock market. But can it last?


Morgan Stanley, however, that the Chinese residential property market is now showing some signs of stability, & possible growth.

Livewiremarkets & Morgan Stanley C. Capolingua 18.10.24 said

"China’s ailing property market is finally showing some tentative signs of firming, says major broker Morgan Stanley in their latest global mining sector research report titled “DataDig: Completions?”. Notice I used the word “firming” and not “turning”. It’s an important distinction – it’s difficult to arrest a multi-year nose-dive in just a fewweeks.

In “just a few weeks”, China’s stock market has had a rocket put under it following the announcement by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) that it would cut several of its key benchmark rates. This was soon followed by promises by several major economic and finance-facing bureaucrats of impending sweeping fiscal measures that would boost consumption, support heavily indebted local governments, and jump-start the ailing Chinese property market...

Fix the property market and you fix the property sector – a massive employer and presently swimming in debt. You’ll also likely fix consumption via the wealth effect, therefore helping the broader (my emphasis) economy. In short,we could be at the most critical juncture for the Chinese economy in a generation.

Morgan Stanley’s China property team have observed the following improvements in the Chinese property market so far this month:

• A pickup in property sales – Golden Week (October 1 – 7) sales are up 39% compared to last year and would likely contribute to “mid-double digit” growth on a monthly basis. Despite the improvement, sales are still likely to be down in October on an annual basis, however.
• Visitations to sales centres and property agencies are up
• Home sellers are raising listing prices in high tier cities
• Some developers have begun to reduce discounts

All of the above is just the tip of the iceberg and much more (my emphasis) needs to be done to set a full-blown recovery in place, suggests Morgan Stanley. Their China property team believes only a “concerted policy implementation and macro recovery will be key for a sustainable improvement in sales/housing”. So far, we are yet to see any concrete (pun intended!) fiscal stimulus measures to back up Beijing’s rhetoric – and perhaps this explains the recent pullback in Chinese stocks as per the China A50 Shares Index chart above".

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/china-property-is-turning-time-to-investigate-asx-copper-and-zircon-stocks?utm_campaign=89217&utm_content=wrap_up_instant&utm_term=editor_pick&utm_medium=ema


If this above positive property trend continues, it can be expected that coking & met coal prices will slowly rise over the next 12 months- which will boost WHC's SP.