Target $18.72, page-10852

1.Re my post directly above, I should have mentioned "your estimates of thermal & met coal average prices over the next 12 months" (to justify your surprisingly high SP target of $18.96)



2 .My post directly above should have said that China's A50 Index has risen c. 20% since 1.9.24 (anticipating the US $114b stimulus package, to try to revive China's economy.



3.There are interesting comments from Chairman M. Vaile & CEO P. Flynn in their AGM address on 30.10.24. It is a long read, but highly recommended. It (along with the excellent Sept Qrtly.) helps explain why, in the last few days, many Brokers are very bullish on WHC SP, with Price Targets ranging from c. $7.50-$9.

M. Vaile

"The [Energy Transition] challenges posed are immense. The demand for oil, natural gas coal and even wood (biomass) is at
historic highs. So, while we may see the energy mix change, the net demand for hydrocarbons will continue to
grow for decades to come, driven by the inexorable forces of population growth, the desire for better living
standards, urbanisation and new sources of demand such as data centres, to give a contemporary example.

In an increasingly volatile world, and in light some of the challenges I have briefly canvassed, we are seeing a
recalibration of the global decarbonisation push to one that places greater emphasis on energy and industrial
security. As I speak to customers and policymakers both at home and abroad, it is apparent there is an increasing
awareness of the risks of prematurely dismantling the architecture of our energy and industrial system before
other technologies are ready to take up the slack...



When surplus capital emerges (BMA is still now owed US $1.1b- but in c. Feb. 2025, WHC will receive US $1.08b from its sale of 30% of Blackwater?- my words in brackets) after allowing for the deferred payments for the Queensland acquisition, we expect to be in a position to increase (my emphasis, & from Feb.2025,my words) returns to shareholders, building on our proven track record in this area.
(Is Vaile hinting at a big increase in dividends in 2025? My words)..."

Flynn said

"In addition to the acquisition, we progressed our strategic development projects with the commencement of
early mining at Vickery in NSW. First coal at Vickery was produced in the June quarter and we expect to
produce around 1.2 to 1.3 million tonnes of ROM coal per year through the early mining period.

Vickery’s thermal coal is the highest energy coal in our portfolio, and likely to be the highest in the market, at around
6400 kCal/kg (net as received) – in addition to having a semi-soft coking coal superior to Maules Creek. This
makes it an important blending coal for Whitehaven, helping to ensure we maintain high quality, high margin
products in our NSW portfolio. The thermal product is also very attractive to customers operating low
emissions power plants requiring the most energy efficient fuel inputs...

In the recently published World Energy Outlook 2024, under the Stated Policies Scenario, the International
Energy Agency revised its outlook for coal upwards, particularly for the coming decade. The IEA’s upward
revision is principally the result of updated electricity demand projections, notably from China and India.
Total coal demand is 300 million tonnes of coal equivalent (Mtce) or 6% higher in 2030 than in the 2023
World Energy Outlook. With this revision, global coal demand is expected to decline by an average of only
2% each year through to 2050, which is not necessarily the case in our growth markets and for our high
quality products.
In recent months, Commodity Insights reviewed its long-term seaborne coal supply and demand forecasts
for both high-CV thermal coal (>5850 kcal/kg net as received) and metallurgical coal, and their findings
remain unchanged.
Demand for seaborne high-CV thermal coal is forecast to grow by ~ 20% (my emphasis) from 2024 to 2040, while supply
falls by ~ 33% (my emphasis) due to the limited expansion projects in the pipeline, resulting in a shortfall of around 139Mt
by 2040.
With several large mines nearing their end of mine-life and underinvestment in development projects,
volumes necessary to meet demand may no longer be available. This outlook is consistent with
Whitehaven’s position that our high-quality NSW thermal coal operations remain strategically important to
our business and indeed the world, and that they will continue to support global energy security for decades
to come, particularly in Asia.

A structural shortfall in the production of metallurgical coal for seaborne markets is also forecast.
Commodity Insights forecasts demand for seaborne metallurgical coal to grow by ~22% from 2024 to 2040,
while supply is expected to fall by ~8%, resulting in a 74 million tonne shortfall by 2040.
Commodity Insights’ research is backed up by Wood Mackenzie, which also forecasts demand fo



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