So glad to see someone have a go at some real numbers ... thank you!
Some further input as requested:
Per the last announcements -
- Financing costs will be around $250m
- D&A $750m/year ($500 QLD + $250 NSW)
- and a further $240m unwinding of provisions (reducing until FY27)
which all impact NPAT (Capital costs don't affect NPAT immediately, just cash flow)
I doubt the sell down will be used to retire debt. Management have been pretty clear they will keep the debt. And there's too many other big cash flows to cover in the medium term anyway.
Re SOI, 34.2m shares aren't entitled to vote or receive dividends. (And probably never will be entitled). So SOI for dividends is closer to 800m.
From WHC website:
Production guidance is for equity sales of 25-28mt, so perhaps closer to 26.5mt (at current guidance)
At a 50% payout I get a FY div closer to 18c, rising in future years even if for no other reason - then as the unwind of provisions finishes from FY28.
I'm also hopeful that the $140/t unit cost guidance will prove much higher than actual after a few years of bedding things down and if/ when Vickery costs can be capitalised rather than run through p/l as currently required by accounting standards. Dec qtly report will be insightful on this.
A Duania sell down would also be a major sp catalyst.
Cheers
Hugnis
(20min delay)