All very interesting points you make.
.
The $200 spike appears to have been a shock reaction when "buy anything and everything" set in with panic. Apparently so much excess coal was purchased, that a good volume of it was exported from Europe to India, if memory serves me correctly. The fear of running short energy kicked in along with the US led destruction of the nord streams.
.
That middle east pipeline may not happen unless Iran is further crippled or has a regime change.
.
I see what you're saying about the crippling on the SMR WHC thread. My perspective looks at 1999 and 2004 and 2012 and 2022 to see several other "shelves" in the price charts... "higher lows" is probably the better term to use. I see that we've got another "higher low" situation occurring and not over valuation at this level. Sure we could pull back 10-15%, but, much more than that and mines will start running at a loss... which won't be sustainable. The cure for low prices is low prices.
(20min delay)