Depends which type of coal you're looking at. Thermal down 40%. Met down 35%. As you say, cost inflation has already crept in as well. The currency is almost unchanged in 12 months (Yes, its fluctuated between 60c and 68c, but its basically at the same price as it was 12 months ago.) You might get a few bonus % points in your favour this quarter, but nothing thats going to move the dial in my opinion.
$250 AUD or $250USD? For met or thermal?
Sure these things are technically possible. But thats where investing and gambling on a stock differ. If thats your style, hey, go for it man.
I actually dont need to focus much energy here at all, because there isnt really much you need to actually do to see that coal companies (and energy by extension) has been a poor investment for the past 24 months or so.
This may turn around one day. I would certainly not rule that out. If some people want to park there money here for years waiting for this to turn around, then dont hold your breath. The sad part is the opportunity lost on other investments that they could have made.
Here's the thing. I've said it before, and I'll say it again; too many people here are too emotional about their investment. They want it desperately to be the right choice, despite the facts. I'll give you an example. In 2023, I thought lithium had bottomed, and took a punt on PLS. I was up briefly, but then after a few months the share price started to decline. Instead of desperately wanting to be right, I re-evaluated my position, did more reading, and took the view that the lithium price was unlikely to recover in the short to medium term (3-5 year time frame). I took my investment out (at a small loss) and parked it somewhere else. PLS went on to decline another 60%
The problem here is if you have a bearish view on coal/WHC, you're a wackjob, greeny, lefty.
Well, the wackjob, greeny, lefty, got it right.
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