I see one possible reason for coal price softening in recent weeks. It takes 6-8 weeks for coal to reach its destination from Newcastle to our main customers in Japan, South Korea and India. When prices were US$400+ they would have all been buying to stock up for winter. Any coal purchases now would be for January. Depending on how depleted their stocks are over winter, we may see another buying frenzy leading up to summer. This time of year heating/cooling is something most people can do without in the northern hemisphere.
China also introduced their coal price cap this time last year which saw a large price drop. These coal price caps are still in effect, although they have likely raised the cap somewhat.
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